Fact Checking Trump's Iowa Midterm Kickoff Rally
CONSERVATION & AGRICULTURE
CLIMATE
The claim: “I'll never forget it. It was so freezing, you think it's cold now, that blew it away. Whatever happened to global warming?”
The reality:
2025 was the third hottest year on record.
Approximately 1/3rd of the state of Iowa is abnormally dry according to the US Drought Monitor.
2025 was the third driest year in 131 years according to NOAA.
RURAL INVESTMENTS
The claim: Speaking to the CEO of John Deere Trump said, “And you just said you're opening up two massive plants because of tariffs. You're opening up one in North Carolina, one someplace else, and then you're expanding all over the place.”
The reality:
The plant in North Carolina was announced on May 14, 2024
The distribution center in Indiana was announced on July 7, 2024 and the land it is being built on was acquired then.
John Deere did make one announcement in 2025, a commitment to build a factory in Nuevo León, Mexico.
TRADE
TRADE DEFICIT
The claim: “We had the largest trade deficit in world history. But in one year, I've slashed our gaping trade deficit by a staggering 77%. How about that? What about that? That's pretty good. Nobody's ever seen that. You know, if you slash your trade deficit by 1% you're like a genius.
The reality:
The U.S. will record a minimum trade deficit of $1.26 trillion for 2025.
This will be the largest trade deficit in history. The monthly trade deficit for December would have to show an extraordinary - and likely impossible - decline in the trade deficit to avoid setting a new record.
TARIFFS
The claim: “We recently issued $12 billion in farm relief. We gave them because you were screwed by other countries. I said, ‘How much is the number?’ to our great Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, she’s doing a great job. I said, Brooke, what’s the number? And she said, $12 billion. And I wrote a check for $12 billion.”
The reality:
The Farmer Bridge Assistance Program is funded by the Commodity Credit Corporation which uses funds appropriated by Congress. These funds are not tied directly, in any way to any tariff revenue generated by recent tariffs on miscellaneous products.
The FBA Program is $12 billion, $11 billion for commodities, $1 billion for specialty crops. Generally reported to not be enough.
USDA outlined that the program’s purpose is to “provide[s] producers with a bridge until the benefits of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) are available.” and that is is “... in response to four years of disastrous Biden administration policies that created record-high input and production costs, zero new trade deals, and a forgotten rural America.”
This contradicts the administration’s claims that the program is supposed to offset trade policies (either US or foreign).
AGRICULTURAL TRADE WINS
The claim: “I've made new fair trade deals with countries covering half of all US trade, scoring giant wins for the farmers, ranchers and agricultural producers, like no other president has ever done.”
The reality:
Exports experienced a sharp decline in 2025: From January-August 2025, U.S. agricultural exports to China fell by 54% compared to the same period in 2024. A $7.4 billion year-over-year loss.
Soybeans declined the most: Soybean exports dropped by $2.7 billion across the entire U.S. Soybeans alone accounted for one-third of the total decline in export value.
The impact varies regionally: The largest export losses are concentrated in the South, Midwest and West Coast. For example, Louisiana saw a $1.9 billion drop in agricultural exports to China, accounting for 25% of the U.S. total.
ETHANOL AND BIOFUELS
The claim: “Japan will now allow the United States to supply up to 100% of automobile ethanol, automotive ethanol, and import large amounts of aviation (SAF) biofuels from the United States.”
The reality:
Japan produces very little ethanol domestically and currently only blends 1.9% ethanol with gas. There are plans to increase that blend to 10% (E10) by 2030. That plan predates Trump’s second term.
The U.S. will only supply 10% of SAF. This deal has been in the works since at least 2023, and was going to happen whether or not Trump was in the White House.
The claim: “The United Kingdom will import nearly $1 billion of ethanol. That's part of their deal.”
The reality:
The U.K. adopted E10 fuel in 2021. U.S. exports to the U.K have risen steadily since then in line worth the increased demand.
The U.S. was already exporting a record amount of ethanol to the U.K. in 2024. There has been no increase above what was already a steadily growing market.
Of the $1 billion claimed by Trump, there are only commitments for $700 million in ethanol imports. A figure the U.K. would have hit in 2026 without any trade deal changes.
BEEF EXPORTS
The claim: “Australia is allowing American beef into its market for the first time in more than 20 years.”
The reality:
Australian beef exports the U.S. hit a record high in 2025.
Australia exports almost 70% of its domestic beef production and only imports small high dollar products like Wagyu beef (typically from Japan).
SOYBEAN EXPORTS
The claim: “China has agreed to purchase over $40 billion of US-grown soybeans. You know that, you're selling them. And I went to President Xi, and he's upping it. I mean, it's $40 billion.”
The reality:
Exports of soybeans to China are lower than they were in 2018, before Trump’s first trade war.
PORK EXPORTS
The claim: “The European Union will dramatically increase purchases of American pork, dairy and soybean oil. They never did that before. They're all doing things that they never did before, because you have a certain president that's a little bit different from the presidents that you had before.”
The reality:
The EU agreed to grant preferential market access to U.S. pork producers, but has not made any commitments to increase purchases of U.S. grown pork products.
ENERGY
E15
The claim: “Speaker Mike Johnson will be sending me a bill very shortly, supporting year-round E15 to my desk very quickly, and I will sign it without delay.”
The reality:
Year round E15 is not included in the Appropriations’ bill which passed the house last week. The Administration has been blaming this on congressional gridlock, however the Republican Party has control of both chambers of Congress.
Biofuels have little to do with the current decrease in fuel prices. Decrease in demand for oil is typically an indicator of low economic demand. If people aren’t out in the economy spending money, they are purchasing less oil and oil prices decrease. Including the price of gasoline in the US.
Additional supply of fuels like ethanol will simply over saturate the market further and likely provide little economic return for corn producers in the midwest.
ELECTIONS & VOTING
RIGGED ELECTION
The claim: “After a rigged election, we had a rigged election.”
The reality:
Multiple investigations have shown that there was no abnormal voting activity in the 2020 election.
This is further substantiated by the Dominion court case and subsequent FOX news settlement.
ECONOMY
INTEREST RATES
The claim: “We inherited the legacy of record high inflation, the highest inflation in the history of our country. They say, the fake news -- oh, that’s a lot of fake news. No, the fake news -- the fake news said it’s 48 years. I remember -- recently, I said the highest inflation, the worst -- I believe this, by the way, worse than the history of our country. They said, it wasn’t the worst, it was 48 years.”
The reality:
The highest interest rates in U.S. history occurred in 1981 when interest rates hit 18.6%. By contrast the highest interest rate under Biden was 5.5%. The current interest rate is 3.9%.
INCOME AND WAGES
The claim: “Our spirit is restored, inflation is stopped, incomes are up, prices are down. Our economy is roaring. Our workers are thriving”
The reality:
The labor share of income for the non-farm business sector dropped sharply in the third quarter of 2025 to its lowest level ever, of only 53.8 percent. This is the smallest amount of income to workers since 1947 (when this data was first recorded). It is likely the smallest share of income to workers since the peak of the first gilded age.
The claim: “After one year of Trump, real wages are already up more than $2,000. Think of it that's a $5,000 swing, much faster, wages have gone up much -- much faster, think of this, than inflation.”
The reality:
Real wages increased by a meager 1.1% in 2025 - BLS
AFFORDABILITY
The claim: “And then they came up, you know, it's a word that they came up with, affordability.”
The reality:
According to the Oxford English Dictionary, affordability, the word, was first used in the 1910s in the Indianapolis Star.
UNEMPLOYMENT
The claim: “The reason our job numbers are so good -- and remember this, I've cut hundreds of thousands of federal jobs. Now, if I didn't do that, our numbers would be even more through the roof, or I could get them. You know what they do, in order to have decent numbers, they hire a million people. You hire a million people all of a sudden, you're down to 3.5 percent. We don't do that. We get rid of that job where you have 10 jobs for every -- You have 10 people for every job and they are all now -- and they hated me. They hated me. Now they love me. You know why, they all got jobs in the private sector making twice as much money as they made from the federal government, sometimes much more than that.”
The reality:
584,000 jobs were created over 2025, far fewer than the 2 million that were generated in 2024
Unemployment is up to 4.5% in 2025
Over 212,000 federal jobs have been cut under Trump.
FOREIGN INVESTMENT
The claim: “We secured commitments for a record breaking plus $18 trillion.”
The reality:
This is a completely made up number. The entire U.S. economy is $31 trillion. To date foreign governments have issued press releases with noncommittal pledges and unenforceable amounts of investments. The actual investments being made will support economic competitors like Brazil and Argentina, not the U.S.
FAMILY HOME INVESTMENTS
The claim: “Last week I signed an executive order to ban Wall Street and large institutional investors from buying up all the single-family homes in America.”
The reality:
This Executive Order carries no force of law whatsoever, it is merely a statement of preference. However, Trump’s insistence on creating a 50-year mortgage would effectively turn any homeowner using such a financial instrument into a lifetime renter.
MILITARY/DHS/IMMIGRATION
RECRUITMENT
The claim: “You know, one thing I -- I think which is so important is if you remember a year and a half ago, we couldn't get people to enlist in the military, any of them, Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, any of them, the Coast Guard, Space Force. They couldn't get anybody with a uniform that represented the country. You couldn't get them. And today we have the single greatest recruitment numbers in the history of our military. The police forces are loaded. Law enforcement is loaded up and everybody wants to be a policeman, a fireman.”
The reality:
Most police agencies in the country have a smaller staff number now than they did in 2019.
There is no reliable stat on the recruitment and hiring of new fire fighters.
Experts attribute the military recruitment surge to initiatives implemented during the Biden administration, including larger enlistment bonuses, preparatory courses, and updated recruiting strategies.
CRIME
The claim: “And we have the lowest crime rate now in the history of our country.”
The reality:
This is not true as there have not been data released on the crime rate for 2025. However, the crime rate in 2024 -before Trump was President- was the lowest since 1969. The decrease in the crime rate has largely been driven by investments made by President Biden, policies that are no longer being funded under Trump. Will this funding cut lead to another crime wave like we saw at the end of Trump’s first term?
IMMIGRATION
The claim: In an interview with Fox News before his speech Trump continued to spread hideous lies about his immigration policies and about Alex Pretti. And at his speech tonight Trump blatantly lied about how popular his cruel and deadly immigration policies are.
The reality:
Trump’s approval rating on immigration hit a record low this week. The latest Reuters/IPSOS poll published yesterday found a majority of Americans say Trump’s crackdown on immigration has gone too far. Just 39%of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing on immigration, down from 50% last February, and 58% say ICE agents have gone too far.
A majority of Americans also disapprove of how immigration enforcement officers are handling their jobs, with a majority saying ICE’s tactics are “too forceful.”
Since Trump took office, seven people have been shot and killed by federal immigration officers, including unarmed U.S. citizens.
There have been at least 13 instances of immigration agents firing at or into civilian vehicles since July, and more than 40 cases of immigration agents using banned chokeholds and other moves that can cut off breathing.
More than a third of the roughly 220,000 people arrested by ICE officers in the first nine months of the Trump administration had no criminal histories. In the highest profile ICE operations in Los Angeles; Chicago; Washington, D.C.; and across Massachusetts, more than half of those arrested had no criminal record.
SOUND OFF
How do you think the U.S. should handle immigration policy? Tell us about it. Email: podcast@onecountryproject.com and your feedback could be on an upcoming episode of The Hot Dish.
Excellent format: Trump/Admin stated as fact vs Facts with data and dates. Make this structure a regular feature. We need the two columns ongoing if we are ever going to get the facts clear to the country.
I my opinion, there needs to be continuous pressure put on congress, using the empirical facts, especially the ICE data, to rein in the out of control direction this department is operating. Like the rest of this administrations hyperbole, regarding our overall economy, it's all out there readily available for anyone with 20/20 eyesight and a brain.